Bitwise · Ethereum Blockspace

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This is an upper bound, not the expected cost. The median basis compares the median relay bid with the median local block below the threshold; because the local and relay block for the same slot draw on the same public mempool, it overstates the real gap. The honest expectation is a small loss, not break-even or a gain.
Only low-value blocks are affected. High-value blocks sit above the threshold and are untouched, so most of the reward the relay would have paid is recovered by building locally.
Min-bid also removes a source of missed blocks. When a relay fails to publish after a blind-signed header, the slot is missed and the ~0.05 ETH consensus reward is lost; building locally avoids that.
Figures are regime-dependent (they shift with gas conditions) and assume the network-staked figure above. Basis-point impact is independent of your stake size; the ETH/yr figure scales with it.

Block value & supply